Listening to Wosa (Wines of SA, the exporters’ mouthpiece) CEO Su Birch on Cape Talk this evening, I was reminded of Evelyn Waugh’s comedic masterpiece Scoop in which intrepid wannabe foreign correspondent William Boot dared not contradict his boss, editor of the Daily Beast, Lord Copper. So when he wished to say “no” he euphemistically replied “up to a point, Lord Copper.” Not that Su is a beast (far from it) but I heard she did call in Messrs. Su, Grabbit and Runne (no relation) after industry commentator Emile Joubert blogged that Wosa needed a management shakeup.

The interview focused on confusing reports about SA exports of wine to UK supermarkets and whether they were on the skids. Confusion reigned because of the distinction made between bottled wine and wine shipped in bulk to be bottled cheaper in Blighty. The impression given was that the state of exports was not that bad as although bottles were down, bulk was up and anyway, it was all the fault of the strong rand.

Up to a point. SA exports to UK “Grocery Mults” (essentially supermarkets) to end October are down 11% by volume and 6% by value over a year while Australian exports are up 5% by volume and 7% by value from a much higher base. Overall, UK supermarkets are selling 2% more wine for 7% more money than they were a year ago. As for the exchange rate herring, it’s definitely a red one as the Aussie dollar has appreciated more against Sterling than the Rand over a year (17.4% vs. 17.3%) and of course the Aussies didn’t have a World Cup to boost sales. Even more impressive is the performance of New Zealand with volumes up a massive 38% and value up 34% – but then the Kiwi dollar has only improved by 9% against Sterling. No, there is definitely a crisis in SA wine exports to our largest market, the UK. One which statistical sophistry will not explain away.